It was two months prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
