Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
